Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Schladming vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
2 – 1
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
6/7/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schladming50%
×Draw22%
Bruck an der Mur28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
1.97
Bruck an der Mur
1.45

Schladming creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
72%
Schladming or Bruck an der Mur
78%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
50%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
28%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
86%
Schladming 2+ goals
58%
Schladming 3+ goals
31%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
77%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
42%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
64%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.97

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Schladming scores more
50%
level
22%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
28%

Schladming at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schladming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schladming vs Bruck an der Mur

Schladming beat Bruck an der Mur 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.