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Schiltigheim vs Sedan — Coupe de France 2018

Schiltigheim
Schiltigheim
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sedan
Sedanadvanced
2/21/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade de l'Aar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schiltigheim12%
×Draw17%
Sedan70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schiltigheim
0.88
Sedan
2.38

Sedan creates 170% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Schiltigheim
1.00
Sedan
2.50

allows per match

Schiltigheim
2.25
Sedan
0.75

finishing

Schiltigheim+0.00on par
Sedan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schiltigheim ↓

Sedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Schiltigheim or draw
30%
Schiltigheim or Sedan
83%
Draw or Sedan
88%

Winning margin

Schiltigheim wins by 2+
4%
Sedan wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Schiltigheim 1+ goals
59%
Schiltigheim 2+ goals
22%
Schiltigheim 3+ goals
6%
Sedan 1+ goals
91%
Sedan 2+ goals
68%
Sedan 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Schiltigheim (draw refunded)
15%
Sedan (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schiltigheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Sedan away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schiltigheim attack 1.00 + Sedan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Sedan attack 2.50 + Schiltigheim defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Schiltigheim scores more
12%
level
17%
Sedan scores more
70%

Sedan at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schiltigheim vs Sedan

Sedan beat Schiltigheim 4-0 in Coupe de France on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aar in Schiltigheim.