Schiltigheim 2–1 Biesheim: Result & Stats

Schiltigheim

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Biesheim

12/8/2018

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade de l'Aar (Schiltigheim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schiltigheim18%

×Draw20%

Biesheim61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchiltigheimExpected goals in this matchBiesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.13

Schiltigheim

1.07

Biesheim

2.13

Biesheim creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Schiltigheim

1.00

Biesheim

2.00

allows per match

Schiltigheim

2.25

Biesheim

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schiltigheim+0.00on par

Biesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schiltigheim ↓

Biesheim →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Schiltigheim or draw

39%

Schiltigheim or Biesheim

80%

Draw or Biesheim

82%

Winning margin

Schiltigheim wins by 2+

Biesheim wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Schiltigheim 1+ goals

66%

Schiltigheim 2+ goals

29%

Schiltigheim 3+ goals

Biesheim 1+ goals

88%

Biesheim 2+ goals

63%

Biesheim 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Schiltigheim (draw refunded)

23%

Biesheim (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schiltigheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Biesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schiltigheim attack 1.00 + Biesheim defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Biesheim attack 2.00 + Schiltigheim defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Schiltigheim scores more

18%

level

20%

Biesheim scores more

61%

Biesheim at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Biesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff