Schifflange 0–2 UNA Strassen: Result & Stats

Schifflange

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UNA Strassen

5/12/2024

National Division · Round 28Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange33%

×Draw24%

UNA Strassen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchifflangeExpected goals in this matchUNA Strassen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.65

Schifflange

1.40

UNA Strassen

1.65

UNA Strassen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

1.40

creates per match

1.43

1.87

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Schifflange

1.40

UNA Strassen

1.43

allows per match

Schifflange

1.87

UNA Strassen

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par

UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

UNA Strassen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw

57%

Schifflange or UNA Strassen

76%

Draw or UNA Strassen

67%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+

15%

UNA Strassen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals

75%

Schifflange 2+ goals

41%

Schifflange 3+ goals

17%

UNA Strassen 1+ goals

81%

UNA Strassen 2+ goals

49%

UNA Strassen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)

43%

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schifflange scores more

33%

level

24%

UNA Strassen scores more

43%

UNA Strassen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff