Schifflange 1–4 Swift Hesperange: Result & Stats

Schifflange

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Swift Hesperange

5/18/2024

National Division · Round 29Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange24%

×Draw22%

Swift Hesperange54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchifflangeExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.99

Schifflange

1.25

Swift Hesperange

1.99

Swift Hesperange creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

1.40

creates per match

2.10

1.87

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Schifflange

1.40

Swift Hesperange

2.10

allows per match

Schifflange

1.87

Swift Hesperange

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw

46%

Schifflange or Swift Hesperange

78%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

76%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+

10%

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals

71%

Schifflange 2+ goals

36%

Schifflange 3+ goals

13%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

86%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

59%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)

30%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Schifflange scores more

24%

level

22%

Swift Hesperange scores more

54%

Swift Hesperange at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff