Schifflange 2–0 Progres Niederkorn: Result & Stats

Schifflange

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Progres Niederkorn

8/20/2023

National Division · Round 3Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange29%

×Draw23%

Progres Niederkorn48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchifflangeExpected goals in this matchProgres Niederkorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.77

Schifflange

1.32

Progres Niederkorn

1.77

Progres Niederkorn creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

1.40

creates per match

1.68

1.87

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Schifflange

1.40

Progres Niederkorn

1.68

allows per match

Schifflange

1.87

Progres Niederkorn

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw

52%

Schifflange or Progres Niederkorn

77%

Draw or Progres Niederkorn

71%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+

12%

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals

73%

Schifflange 2+ goals

38%

Schifflange 3+ goals

15%

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

83%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

53%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)

37%

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Schifflange scores more

29%

level

23%

Progres Niederkorn scores more

48%

Progres Niederkorn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff