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Schifflange vs Mondercange — National Division 2018

Schifflange
Schifflange
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mondercange
Mondercange
9/24/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 7Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange47%
×Draw23%
Mondercange30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schifflange
1.86
Mondercange
1.45

Schifflange creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Schifflange
1.40
Mondercange
1.02

allows per match

Schifflange
1.87
Mondercange
2.33

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par
Mondercange+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

Mondercange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw
70%
Schifflange or Mondercange
77%
Draw or Mondercange
53%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+
26%
Mondercange wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals
84%
Schifflange 2+ goals
55%
Schifflange 3+ goals
28%
Mondercange 1+ goals
77%
Mondercange 2+ goals
42%
Mondercange 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)
61%
Mondercange (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Mondercange away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + Mondercange defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Mondercange attack 1.02 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Schifflange scores more
47%
level
23%
Mondercange scores more
30%

Schifflange at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Schifflange 2–2 Mondercange

Schifflange and Mondercange drew 2-2 in National Division on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Rue Denis Netgen in Schifflange.