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Schifflange vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Schifflange
Schifflange
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
11/26/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 13Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange45%
×Draw23%
Marisca Mersch32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schifflange
1.76
Marisca Mersch
1.47

Schifflange creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Schifflange
1.40
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

Schifflange
1.87
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw
68%
Schifflange or Marisca Mersch
77%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
55%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+
24%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals
83%
Schifflange 2+ goals
52%
Schifflange 3+ goals
26%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
77%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
43%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)
58%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schifflange scores more
45%
level
23%
Marisca Mersch scores more
32%

Schifflange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Schifflange 2–1 Marisca Mersch

Schifflange beat Marisca Mersch 2-1 in National Division on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Rue Denis Netgen in Schifflange.