Schifflange 3–1 Fola Esch: Result & Stats

Schifflange

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fola Esch

9/3/2023

National Division · Round 5Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange38%

×Draw22%

Fola Esch39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchifflangeExpected goals in this matchFola Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.76

Schifflange

1.73

Fola Esch

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

1.40

creates per match

1.65

1.87

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Schifflange

1.40

Fola Esch

1.65

allows per match

Schifflange

1.87

Fola Esch

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

Fola Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw

61%

Schifflange or Fola Esch

78%

Draw or Fola Esch

62%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+

20%

Fola Esch wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals

82%

Schifflange 2+ goals

52%

Schifflange 3+ goals

25%

Fola Esch 1+ goals

83%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

52%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)

49%

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Schifflange scores more

38%

level

22%

Fola Esch scores more

39%

Fola Esch at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff