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Schermbeck vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
CANC
13:30
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
11/29/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Schermbeck65%
×Draw18%
Westfalia Herne17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
2.56
Westfalia Herne
1.25

Schermbeck creates 105% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 20 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
83%
Schermbeck or Westfalia Herne
82%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
35%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
44%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
92%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
72%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
46%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
71%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
36%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
79%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.56

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Schermbeck scores more
65%
level
18%
Westfalia Herne scores more
17%

Schermbeck at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schermbeck vs Westfalia Herne — Match Preview

Schermbeck face Westfalia Herne on November 29, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Schermbeck host Westfalia Herne at Volksbank-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.