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Schermbeck vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
CANC
13:30
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
12/20/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Schermbeck48%
×Draw22%
TuS Haltern30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
2.01
TuS Haltern
1.55

Schermbeck creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 20 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
70%
Schermbeck or TuS Haltern
78%
Draw or TuS Haltern
52%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
28%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
87%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
59%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
32%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
79%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
46%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
62%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.01

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Schermbeck scores more
48%
level
22%
TuS Haltern scores more
30%

Schermbeck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schermbeck face TuS Haltern (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Schermbeck hosting TuS Haltern. Match starts December 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Schermbeck host TuS Haltern at Volksbank-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.