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Schermbeck vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
3/6/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Volksbank Arena II - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Schermbeck53%
×Draw21%
TuS Erndtebruck26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
2.19
TuS Erndtebruck
1.50

Schermbeck creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
74%
Schermbeck or TuS Erndtebruck
79%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
47%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
32%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
89%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
64%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
37%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
78%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
44%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
67%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Schermbeck scores more
53%
level
21%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
26%

Schermbeck at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Schermbeck 4–0 TuS Erndtebruck

Schermbeck beat TuS Erndtebruck 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Volksbank Arena II - Kunstrasenplatz in Schermbeck.