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Schermbeck vs Türkspor Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
2/1/2026Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Schermbeck41%
×Draw23%
Türkspor Dortmund36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
1.72
Türkspor Dortmund
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Türkspor Dortmund
1.51

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Türkspor Dortmund
1.77

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
64%
Schermbeck or Türkspor Dortmund
77%
Draw or Türkspor Dortmund
59%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
21%
Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
82%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
51%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
25%
Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
80%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
48%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
53%
Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schermbeck scores more
41%
level
23%
Türkspor Dortmund scores more
36%

Schermbeck at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schermbeck vs Türkspor Dortmund

Schermbeck beat Türkspor Dortmund 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Volksbank-Arena in Schermbeck.