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Schermbeck vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
10/21/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 11Volksbank Arena II - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Schermbeck31%
×Draw23%
Sportfreunde Lotte46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
1.50
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.85

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
54%
Schermbeck or Sportfreunde Lotte
77%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
69%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
15%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
78%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
44%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
19%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
84%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
55%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
41%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Schermbeck scores more
31%
level
23%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
46%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Schermbeck 2–0 Sportfreunde Lotte

Schermbeck beat Sportfreunde Lotte 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Volksbank Arena II - Kunstrasenplatz in Schermbeck.