Schermbeck 2–2 Preußen Münster II: Result & Stats

Schermbeck

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Preußen Münster II

5/29/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 38Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Schermbeck36%

×Draw23%

Preußen Münster II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchermbeckExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.71

Schermbeck

1.59

Preußen Münster II

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 88 away

1.67

creates per match

1.72

1.71

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Schermbeck

1.67

Preußen Münster II

1.72

allows per match

Schermbeck

1.71

Preußen Münster II

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Preußen Münster II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw

59%

Schermbeck or Preußen Münster II

77%

Draw or Preußen Münster II

64%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+

18%

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals

80%

Schermbeck 2+ goals

47%

Schermbeck 3+ goals

21%

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals

82%

Preußen Münster II 2+ goals

51%

Preußen Münster II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)

47%

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schermbeck scores more

36%

level

23%

Preußen Münster II scores more

41%

Preußen Münster II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff