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Schermbeck vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
CANC
17:00
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
10/1/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Schermbeck25%
×Draw21%
Kaan-Marienborn54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
1.40
Kaan-Marienborn
2.15

Kaan-Marienborn creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
46%
Schermbeck or Kaan-Marienborn
79%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
75%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
11%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
75%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
41%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
17%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
88%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
63%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
31%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Schermbeck scores more
25%
level
21%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
54%

Kaan-Marienborn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schermbeck vs Kaan-Marienborn — Match Preview

Schermbeck face Kaan-Marienborn on October 1, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Schermbeck host Kaan-Marienborn at Volksbank-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.