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Schermbeck vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
CANC
13:30
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
12/6/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Schermbeck54%
×Draw21%
Hammer SpVg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
2.07
Hammer SpVg
1.33

Schermbeck creates 56% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 19 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
76%
Schermbeck or Hammer SpVg
79%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
46%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
32%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
87%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
61%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
34%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
74%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
38%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
69%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Schermbeck scores more
54%
level
21%
Hammer SpVg scores more
24%

Schermbeck at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schermbeck vs Hammer SpVg — Match Preview

Schermbeck face Hammer SpVg on December 6, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Schermbeck host Hammer SpVg at Volksbank-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.