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Schengen vs Schifflange — Cup 2020

Schengen
Schengen
FT
3 – 2
Schifflange
Schifflange
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundZone de Récréation et de Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Schengen15%
×Draw14%
Schifflange70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schengen
1.60
Schifflange
3.40

Schifflange creates 113% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Schengen
1.83
Schifflange
2.63

allows per match

Schengen
4.17
Schifflange
1.38

finishing

Schengen+0.00on par
Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schengen ↓

Schifflange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Schengen or draw
30%
Schengen or Schifflange
86%
Draw or Schifflange
85%

Winning margin

Schengen wins by 2+
6%
Schifflange wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Schengen 1+ goals
80%
Schengen 2+ goals
47%
Schengen 3+ goals
22%
Schifflange 1+ goals
96%
Schifflange 2+ goals
84%
Schifflange 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Schengen (draw refunded)
18%
Schifflange (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schengen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Schifflange away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schengen attack 1.83 + Schifflange defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Schifflange attack 2.63 + Schengen defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Schengen scores more
15%
level
14%
Schifflange scores more
70%

Schifflange at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Schengen 3–2 Schifflange

Schengen beat Schifflange 3-2 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Zone de Récréation et de Sports in Schengen.