Scheiblingkirchen vs Waidhofen / Thaya

Scheiblingkirchen

CANC

14:30

Waidhofen / Thaya

4/25/2021

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 23Pittentalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Scheiblingkirchen69%

×Draw19%

Waidhofen / Thaya12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScheiblingkirchenExpected goals in this matchWaidhofen / Thaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.80

Scheiblingkirchen

2.20

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.80

Scheiblingkirchen creates 175% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

1.85

creates per match

0.71

0.89

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Scheiblingkirchen

1.85

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.71

allows per match

Scheiblingkirchen

0.89

Waidhofen / Thaya

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scheiblingkirchen ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Scheiblingkirchen or draw

88%

Scheiblingkirchen or Waidhofen / Thaya

81%

Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya

31%

Winning margin

Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+

45%

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals

89%

Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals

64%

Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals

37%

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals

55%

Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals

19%

Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)

85%

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scheiblingkirchen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.89 · 72 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.85 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.20

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Scheiblingkirchen scores more

69%

level

19%

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more

12%

Scheiblingkirchen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff