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Scheiblingkirchen vs Mannersdorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Scheiblingkirchen
Scheiblingkirchen
FT
6 – 1
Mannersdorf
Mannersdorf
4/29/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 23Pittentalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Scheiblingkirchen76%
×Draw15%
Mannersdorf9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scheiblingkirchen
2.54
Mannersdorf
0.73

Scheiblingkirchen creates 248% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 41 away

creates per match

Scheiblingkirchen
1.85
Mannersdorf
0.56

allows per match

Scheiblingkirchen
0.89
Mannersdorf
3.22

finishing

Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par
Mannersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scheiblingkirchen ↓

Mannersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Scheiblingkirchen or draw
91%
Scheiblingkirchen or Mannersdorf
85%
Draw or Mannersdorf
24%

Winning margin

Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+
54%
Mannersdorf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals
92%
Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals
72%
Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals
46%
Mannersdorf 1+ goals
52%
Mannersdorf 2+ goals
17%
Mannersdorf 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)
90%
Mannersdorf (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scheiblingkirchen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.89 · 72 matches

Mannersdorf away — creates 0.56, concedes 3.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.85 + Mannersdorf defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.54

Mannersdorf attack 0.56 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Scheiblingkirchen scores more
76%
level
15%
Mannersdorf scores more
9%

Scheiblingkirchen at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Scheiblingkirchen vs Mannersdorf

Scheiblingkirchen beat Mannersdorf 6-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Pittentalstadion in Scheiblingkirchen.