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Scheiblingkirchen vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Scheiblingkirchen
Scheiblingkirchen
Preview
17:00
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
9/11/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 7
46%
Scheiblingkirchen
model favours
46%22%32%
1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Scheiblingkirchen46%
×Draw22%
Gloggnitz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scheiblingkirchen
1.92
Gloggnitz
1.57

Scheiblingkirchen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Scheiblingkirchen
1.73
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Scheiblingkirchen
1.40
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scheiblingkirchen ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Scheiblingkirchen or draw
68%
Scheiblingkirchen or Gloggnitz
78%
Draw or Gloggnitz
54%

Winning margin

Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+
26%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals
85%
Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals
57%
Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals
30%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
79%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
46%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)
59%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scheiblingkirchen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.73 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Scheiblingkirchen scores more
46%
level
22%
Gloggnitz scores more
32%

Scheiblingkirchen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Scheiblingkirchen
DLLWW
Gloggnitz
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Scheiblingkirchen host Gloggnitz

September 11, 2026: Scheiblingkirchen take on Gloggnitz in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.