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Scheiblingkirchen vs Gloggnitz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Scheiblingkirchen
Scheiblingkirchen
FT
1 – 2
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
11/4/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Pittentalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scheiblingkirchen41%
×Draw26%
Gloggnitz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scheiblingkirchen
1.44
Gloggnitz
1.26

Scheiblingkirchen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 29 away

creates per match

Scheiblingkirchen
1.85
Gloggnitz
1.62

allows per match

Scheiblingkirchen
0.89
Gloggnitz
1.03

finishing

Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scheiblingkirchen ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Scheiblingkirchen or draw
67%
Scheiblingkirchen or Gloggnitz
74%
Draw or Gloggnitz
59%

Winning margin

Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+
20%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals
76%
Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals
42%
Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals
18%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
72%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
36%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)
56%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scheiblingkirchen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.89 · 72 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.85 + Gloggnitz defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gloggnitz attack 1.62 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scheiblingkirchen scores more
41%
level
26%
Gloggnitz scores more
33%

Scheiblingkirchen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Scheiblingkirchen 1–2 Gloggnitz

Gloggnitz beat Scheiblingkirchen 2-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Pittentalstadion in Scheiblingkirchen.