Scheiblingkirchen 3–0 Bruck/Leitha: Result & Stats

Scheiblingkirchen

FT

3 – 0

Bruck/Leitha

4/15/2023

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 24Pittentalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Scheiblingkirchen54%

×Draw22%

Bruck/Leitha24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScheiblingkirchenExpected goals in this matchBruck/Leitha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.25

Scheiblingkirchen

1.95

Bruck/Leitha

1.25

Scheiblingkirchen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

1.73

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Scheiblingkirchen

1.73

Bruck/Leitha

1.09

allows per match

Scheiblingkirchen

1.40

Bruck/Leitha

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par

Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scheiblingkirchen ↓

Bruck/Leitha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Scheiblingkirchen or draw

76%

Scheiblingkirchen or Bruck/Leitha

78%

Draw or Bruck/Leitha

46%

Winning margin

Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+

31%

Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals

86%

Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals

58%

Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals

31%

Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals

71%

Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals

36%

Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)

69%

Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scheiblingkirchen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.73 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Scheiblingkirchen scores more

54%

level

22%

Bruck/Leitha scores more

24%

Scheiblingkirchen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff