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Schattendorf vs Horitschon — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Schattendorf
Schattendorf
FT
1 – 5
Horitschon
Horitschon
8/18/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 3Grenzstadion Schattendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Schattendorf40%
×Draw22%
Horitschon38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schattendorf
1.85
Horitschon
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 88 away

creates per match

Schattendorf
1.36
Horitschon
1.76

allows per match

Schattendorf
1.86
Horitschon
2.33

finishing

Schattendorf+0.00on par
Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schattendorf ↓

Horitschon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Schattendorf or draw
62%
Schattendorf or Horitschon
78%
Draw or Horitschon
60%

Winning margin

Schattendorf wins by 2+
21%
Horitschon wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Schattendorf 1+ goals
84%
Schattendorf 2+ goals
55%
Schattendorf 3+ goals
28%
Horitschon 1+ goals
84%
Horitschon 2+ goals
54%
Horitschon 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Schattendorf (draw refunded)
51%
Horitschon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schattendorf at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.86 · 44 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schattendorf attack 1.36 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Schattendorf defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Schattendorf scores more
40%
level
22%
Horitschon scores more
38%

Schattendorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Schattendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Schattendorf 1–5 Horitschon

Horitschon beat Schattendorf 5-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Grenzstadion Schattendorf in Schattendorf.