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Schattendorf vs Bad Sauerbrunn — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Schattendorf
Schattendorf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
11/15/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 11Grenzstadion Schattendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Schattendorf33%
×Draw23%
Bad Sauerbrunn43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schattendorf
1.47
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.71

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 84 away

creates per match

Schattendorf
1.36
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.56

allows per match

Schattendorf
1.86
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.57

finishing

Schattendorf+0.00on par
Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schattendorf ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Schattendorf or draw
57%
Schattendorf or Bad Sauerbrunn
77%
Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn
67%

Winning margin

Schattendorf wins by 2+
15%
Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Schattendorf 1+ goals
77%
Schattendorf 2+ goals
43%
Schattendorf 3+ goals
18%
Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
82%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
51%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Schattendorf (draw refunded)
43%
Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schattendorf at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.86 · 44 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schattendorf attack 1.36 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.56 + Schattendorf defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schattendorf scores more
33%
level
23%
Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
43%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schattendorf vs Bad Sauerbrunn

Bad Sauerbrunn beat Schattendorf 1-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Grenzstadion Schattendorf in Schattendorf.