Schalke 04 U19 8–0 Wuppertaler SV U19

Schalke 04 U19

FT

8 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Wuppertaler SV U19

10/17/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Schalke 04 U1972%

×Draw17%

Wuppertaler SV U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 U19Expected goals in this matchWuppertaler SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.85

Schalke 04 U19

2.44

Wuppertaler SV U19

0.85

Schalke 04 U19 creates 187% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 33 away

2.20

creates per match

0.79

0.92

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Schalke 04 U19

2.20

Wuppertaler SV U19

0.79

allows per match

Schalke 04 U19

0.92

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Schalke 04 U19 or draw

89%

Schalke 04 U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19

83%

Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19

28%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

49%

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

91%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

70%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

43%

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

57%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

21%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.20 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

72%

level

17%

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

11%

Schalke 04 U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Schalke 04 U19 8–0 Wuppertaler SV U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Wuppertaler SV U19 8-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Gelsenkirchen.

Schalke 04 U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Schalke 04 U19 8–0 Wuppertaler SV U19