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Schalke 04 U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Verl U19
Verl U19
11/19/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Schalke 04 U1969%
×Draw17%
Verl U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schalke 04 U19
2.46
Verl U19
1.02

Schalke 04 U19 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 23 away

creates per match

Schalke 04 U19
2.22
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

Schalke 04 U19
0.94
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Schalke 04 U19 or draw
86%
Schalke 04 U19 or Verl U19
83%
Draw or Verl U19
31%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
46%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
91%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
70%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
44%
Verl U19 1+ goals
64%
Verl U19 2+ goals
27%
Verl U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 U19 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.22 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.46

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Schalke 04 U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
Verl U19 scores more
14%

Schalke 04 U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schalke 04 U19 vs Verl U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Verl U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Gelsenkirchen.