Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Schalke 04 U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
4/27/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Championship - 8th FinalsParkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Schalke 04 U1949%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schalke 04 U19
1.83
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.33

Schalke 04 U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Schalke 04 U19
2.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.74

allows per match

Schalke 04 U19
0.92
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.46

finishing

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Schalke 04 U19 or draw
72%
Schalke 04 U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
77%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
51%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
27%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
84%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
54%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
28%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
74%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
38%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.20 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.74 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Schalke 04 U19 scores more
49%
level
23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
28%

Schalke 04 U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schalke 04 U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Schalke 04 U19 and Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Gelsenkirchen.