Schalke 04 II 0–0 Schott Mainz: Result & Stats

Schalke 04 II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Schott Mainz

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Schalke 04 II61%

×Draw19%

Schott Mainz21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 IIExpected goals in this matchSchott Mainz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.42

Schalke 04 II

2.52

Schott Mainz

1.42

Schalke 04 II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

1.70

1.13

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Schalke 04 II

2.25

Schott Mainz

1.70

allows per match

Schalke 04 II

1.13

Schott Mainz

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 II ↓

Schott Mainz →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Schalke 04 II or draw

79%

Schalke 04 II or Schott Mainz

81%

Draw or Schott Mainz

39%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 II wins by 2+

40%

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

Team goals

Schalke 04 II 1+ goals

92%

Schalke 04 II 2+ goals

71%

Schalke 04 II 3+ goals

45%

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

76%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

41%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)

75%

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 II attack 2.25 + Schott Mainz defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Schott Mainz attack 1.70 + Schalke 04 II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Schalke 04 II scores more

61%

level

19%

Schott Mainz scores more

21%

Schalke 04 II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Schalke 04 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff