Schalke 04 II 3–2 Havelse: Result & Stats

Schalke 04 II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Havelse

N. H. Castelle 68', 52'

P. Lasogga 33'

Unknown 83', 11'

6/25/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3VELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Schalke 04 II44%

×Draw20%

Havelse36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 IIExpected goals in this matchHavelse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

2.06

Schalke 04 II

2.28

Havelse

2.06

Schalke 04 II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

2.25

creates per match

3.00

1.13

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Schalke 04 II

2.25

Havelse

3.00

allows per match

Schalke 04 II

1.13

Havelse

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Havelse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 II ↓

Havelse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Schalke 04 II or draw

64%

Schalke 04 II or Havelse

80%

Draw or Havelse

56%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 II wins by 2+

26%

Havelse wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Schalke 04 II 1+ goals

90%

Schalke 04 II 2+ goals

66%

Schalke 04 II 3+ goals

39%

Havelse 1+ goals

87%

Havelse 2+ goals

61%

Havelse 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)

55%

Havelse (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Havelse away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 II attack 2.25 + Havelse defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.28

Havelse attack 3.00 + Schalke 04 II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Schalke 04 II scores more

44%

level

20%

Havelse scores more

36%

Schalke 04 II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Schalke 04 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

33'

P. Lasogga

52'

N. H. Castelle

68'

N. H. Castelle

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff