Schalke 04 II 2–1 Fortuna Köln: Result & Stats

Schalke 04 II

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Köln

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Am Parkstadion Rasenplatz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Schalke 04 II37%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Köln41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 IIExpected goals in this matchFortuna Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.77

Schalke 04 II

1.67

Fortuna Köln

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.56

creates per match

2.11

1.44

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Schalke 04 II

2.56

Fortuna Köln

2.11

allows per match

Schalke 04 II

1.44

Fortuna Köln

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 II ↓

Fortuna Köln →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Schalke 04 II or draw

59%

Schalke 04 II or Fortuna Köln

77%

Draw or Fortuna Köln

63%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 II wins by 2+

18%

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Schalke 04 II 1+ goals

81%

Schalke 04 II 2+ goals

50%

Schalke 04 II 3+ goals

23%

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Köln 2+ goals

53%

Fortuna Köln 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)

47%

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Fortuna Köln away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 II attack 2.56 + Fortuna Köln defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fortuna Köln attack 2.11 + Schalke 04 II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schalke 04 II scores more

37%

level

23%

Fortuna Köln scores more

41%

Fortuna Köln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff