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Schalding-Heining vs Ismaning — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ismaning
Ismaning
11/26/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 21Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schalding-Heining44%
×Draw26%
Ismaning29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schalding-Heining
1.42
Ismaning
1.10

Schalding-Heining creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Schalding-Heining
1.08
Ismaning
0.75

allows per match

Schalding-Heining
1.46
Ismaning
1.75

finishing

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par
Ismaning+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalding-Heining ↓

Ismaning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Schalding-Heining or draw
71%
Schalding-Heining or Ismaning
74%
Draw or Ismaning
56%

Winning margin

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
21%
Ismaning wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
76%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
41%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
17%
Ismaning 1+ goals
67%
Ismaning 2+ goals
30%
Ismaning 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
60%
Ismaning (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalding-Heining at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Ismaning away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalding-Heining attack 1.08 + Ismaning defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ismaning attack 0.75 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Schalding-Heining scores more
44%
level
26%
Ismaning scores more
29%

Schalding-Heining at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Schalding-Heining will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schalding-Heining vs Ismaning

Schalding-Heining and Ismaning drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg in Passau.