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Schalding-Heining vs Heimstetten — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Heimstetten
Heimstetten
M. Gallmaier 46'
S. Muller 43'
J. Woudstra 38'
3/22/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Schalding-Heining45%
×Draw24%
Heimstetten31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schalding-Heining
1.66
Heimstetten
1.34

Schalding-Heining creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 50 away

creates per match

Schalding-Heining
1.53
Heimstetten
1.58

allows per match

Schalding-Heining
1.10
Heimstetten
1.78

finishing

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par
Heimstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalding-Heining ↓

Heimstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Schalding-Heining or draw
69%
Schalding-Heining or Heimstetten
76%
Draw or Heimstetten
55%

Winning margin

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
23%
Heimstetten wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
81%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
49%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
23%
Heimstetten 1+ goals
74%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
39%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
59%
Heimstetten (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalding-Heining at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Heimstetten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalding-Heining attack 1.53 + Heimstetten defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Heimstetten attack 1.58 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schalding-Heining scores more
45%
level
24%
Heimstetten scores more
31%

Schalding-Heining at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schalding-Heining will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
J. Woudstra
43'
S. Muller
46'
M. Gallmaier

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Schalding-Heining 1–2 Heimstetten

Heimstetten beat Schalding-Heining 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Woudstra (38'), S. Muller (43'), M. Gallmaier (46').

The match was played at Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg in Passau.