Schalding-Heining 4–1 1860 Rosenheim

Schalding-Heining

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

1860 Rosenheim

5/13/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 32Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Schalding-Heining56%

×Draw22%

1860 Rosenheim21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalding-HeiningExpected goals in this match1860 Rosenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.08

Schalding-Heining

1.89

1860 Rosenheim

1.08

Schalding-Heining creates 75% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

1.06

1.10

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Schalding-Heining

1.53

1860 Rosenheim

1.06

allows per match

Schalding-Heining

1.10

1860 Rosenheim

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalding-Heining ↓

1860 Rosenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Schalding-Heining or draw

79%

Schalding-Heining or 1860 Rosenheim

78%

Draw or 1860 Rosenheim

44%

Winning margin

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+

32%

1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals

85%

Schalding-Heining 2+ goals

56%

Schalding-Heining 3+ goals

29%

1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals

66%

1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals

29%

1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)

72%

1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalding-Heining at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalding-Heining attack 1.53 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.06 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Schalding-Heining scores more

56%

level

22%

1860 Rosenheim scores more

21%

Schalding-Heining at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Schalding-Heining will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff