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SC Wiener Neustadt vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

SC Wiener Neustadt
SC Wiener Neustadt
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
8/15/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 1Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SC Wiener Neustadt64%
×Draw19%
Waidhofen / Thaya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wiener Neustadt
2.23
Waidhofen / Thaya
1.04

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 114% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.91
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.36
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wiener Neustadt ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SC Wiener Neustadt or draw
83%
SC Wiener Neustadt or Waidhofen / Thaya
81%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
36%

Winning margin

SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+
41%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals
89%
SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals
65%
SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals
38%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
65%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
28%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)
79%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wiener Neustadt at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.91 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.23

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SC Wiener Neustadt scores more
64%
level
19%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
17%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: SC Wiener Neustadt 4–0 Waidhofen / Thaya

SC Wiener Neustadt beat Waidhofen / Thaya 4-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena in Wiener Neustadt.