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SC Wiener Neustadt vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

SC Wiener Neustadt
SC Wiener Neustadt
FT
3 – 1
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
3/14/2025Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 18Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SC Wiener Neustadt54%
×Draw22%
USC Rohrbach24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.92
USC Rohrbach
1.21

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 71 away

creates per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.91
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.36
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wiener Neustadt ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SC Wiener Neustadt or draw
76%
SC Wiener Neustadt or USC Rohrbach
78%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
46%

Winning margin

SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+
31%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals
85%
SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals
57%
SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals
30%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
70%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
34%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)
69%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wiener Neustadt at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.91 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC Wiener Neustadt scores more
54%
level
22%
USC Rohrbach scores more
24%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: SC Wiener Neustadt 3–1 USC Rohrbach

SC Wiener Neustadt beat USC Rohrbach 3-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena in Wiener Neustadt.