SC Wiener Neustadt 1–1 Kottingbrunn: Result & Stats

SC Wiener Neustadt

FT

1 – 1

Kottingbrunn

3/16/2024

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 17Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SC Wiener Neustadt43%

×Draw24%

Kottingbrunn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Wiener NeustadtExpected goals in this matchKottingbrunn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.37

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.59

Kottingbrunn

1.37

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

1.91

creates per match

1.38

1.36

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.91

Kottingbrunn

1.38

allows per match

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.36

Kottingbrunn

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par

Kottingbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wiener Neustadt ↓

Kottingbrunn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SC Wiener Neustadt or draw

67%

SC Wiener Neustadt or Kottingbrunn

76%

Draw or Kottingbrunn

57%

Winning margin

SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+

21%

Kottingbrunn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals

80%

SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals

47%

SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals

21%

Kottingbrunn 1+ goals

75%

Kottingbrunn 2+ goals

40%

Kottingbrunn 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)

56%

Kottingbrunn (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wiener Neustadt at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Kottingbrunn away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.91 + Kottingbrunn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kottingbrunn attack 1.38 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Wiener Neustadt scores more

43%

level

24%

Kottingbrunn scores more

33%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff