SC Wanderers 2–2 Redlands United: Result & Stats

SC Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Redlands United

6/16/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 15Ballinger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SC Wanderers45%

×Draw22%

Redlands United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC WanderersExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.67

SC Wanderers

1.97

Redlands United

1.67

SC Wanderers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 60 away

1.49

creates per match

1.35

1.98

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

SC Wanderers

1.49

Redlands United

1.35

allows per match

SC Wanderers

1.98

Redlands United

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw

67%

SC Wanderers or Redlands United

78%

Draw or Redlands United

55%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

25%

Redlands United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

86%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

58%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

31%

Redlands United 1+ goals

81%

Redlands United 2+ goals

50%

Redlands United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

58%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 83 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.49 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.97

Redlands United attack 1.35 + SC Wanderers defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SC Wanderers scores more

45%

level

22%

Redlands United scores more

33%

SC Wanderers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff