SC Wanderers 0–5 Moreton City Excelsior

SC Wanderers

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Moreton City Excelsior

7/4/2025

Queensland NPL · Round 16Ballinger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SC Wanderers23%

×Draw22%

Moreton City Excelsior55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC WanderersExpected goals in this matchMoreton City Excelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.99

SC Wanderers

1.23

Moreton City Excelsior

1.99

Moreton City Excelsior creates 62% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 31 away

1.49

creates per match

2.00

1.98

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

SC Wanderers

1.49

Moreton City Excelsior

2.00

allows per match

SC Wanderers

1.98

Moreton City Excelsior

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Moreton City Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw

45%

SC Wanderers or Moreton City Excelsior

78%

Draw or Moreton City Excelsior

77%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

9%

Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

71%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

35%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

13%

Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals

86%

Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals

59%

Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

30%

Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 83 matches

Moreton City Excelsior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.49 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.00 + SC Wanderers defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SC Wanderers scores more

23%

level

22%

Moreton City Excelsior scores more

55%

Moreton City Excelsior at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff