Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SC Wanderers vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
C. Simpson 74'
S. Cordwell 47'
4/26/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 8Ballinger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

SC Wanderers27%
×Draw22%
Gold Coast Knights51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
1.43
Gold Coast Knights
2.02

Gold Coast Knights creates 41% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 91 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.55
Gold Coast Knights
2.09

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.95
Gold Coast Knights
1.31

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
49%
SC Wanderers or Gold Coast Knights
78%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
73%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
12%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
76%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
42%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
17%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
87%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
60%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
35%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.95 · 80 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.55 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.09 + SC Wanderers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
27%
level
22%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
51%

Gold Coast Knights at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
B. Low
47'
S. Cordwell
74'
C. Simpson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SC Wanderers 2 – 0 Gold Coast Knights

SC Wanderers beat Gold Coast Knights 2-0 in Queensland NPL on April 26, 2025.

Goals: S. Cordwell (47'), C. Simpson (74').

The match was played at Ballinger Park in Buderim.