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SC Wanderers vs Capalaba — Queensland Premier League 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
0 – 4
Capalaba
Capalaba
6/11/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Kawana Sports Precinct Field 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

SC Wanderers42%
×Draw22%
Capalaba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
1.94
Capalaba
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.63
Capalaba
1.74

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.88
Capalaba
2.26

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Capalaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
63%
SC Wanderers or Capalaba
78%
Draw or Capalaba
58%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
23%
Capalaba wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
86%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
58%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
30%
Capalaba 1+ goals
84%
Capalaba 2+ goals
54%
Capalaba 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
53%
Capalaba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 40 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.63 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Capalaba attack 1.74 + SC Wanderers defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
42%
level
22%
Capalaba scores more
37%

SC Wanderers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Wanderers vs Capalaba

Capalaba beat SC Wanderers 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kawana Sports Precinct Field 5 in Bokarina.