SC Villa 1–0 Vipers: Result & Stats

SC Villa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vipers

4/29/2023

Premier League · Round 25Betway Muteesa II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

SC Villa35%

×Draw29%

Vipers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC VillaExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.13

SC Villa

1.09

Vipers

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

1.49

creates per match

1.49

0.76

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

SC Villa

1.49

Vipers

1.49

allows per match

SC Villa

0.76

Vipers

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Villa+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Villa ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SC Villa or draw

63%

SC Villa or Vipers

71%

Draw or Vipers

65%

Winning margin

SC Villa wins by 2+

14%

Vipers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SC Villa 1+ goals

66%

SC Villa 2+ goals

30%

SC Villa 3+ goals

10%

Vipers 1+ goals

68%

Vipers 2+ goals

31%

Vipers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SC Villa (draw refunded)

49%

Vipers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.70 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Villa attack 1.49 + Vipers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.09

Vipers attack 1.49 + SC Villa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SC Villa scores more

35%

level

29%

Vipers scores more

37%

Vipers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff