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SC Villa vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

SC Villa
SC Villa
FT
1 – 0
MYDA
MYDA
F. Kazibwe 82'
2/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SC Villa67%
×Draw19%
MYDA14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Villa
2.17
MYDA
0.88

SC Villa creates 147% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

creates per match

SC Villa
1.49
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

SC Villa
0.76
MYDA
2.85

finishing

SC Villa+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Villa ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SC Villa or draw
86%
SC Villa or MYDA
81%
Draw or MYDA
33%

Winning margin

SC Villa wins by 2+
43%
MYDA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SC Villa 1+ goals
89%
SC Villa 2+ goals
64%
SC Villa 3+ goals
36%
MYDA 1+ goals
59%
MYDA 2+ goals
22%
MYDA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SC Villa (draw refunded)
83%
MYDA (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Villa attack 1.49 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.17

MYDA attack 1.00 + SC Villa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SC Villa scores more
67%
level
19%
MYDA scores more
14%

SC Villa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
39'
45'
M. Kiggundu
58'
B. Muhindo← B. Muhindo
61'
A. Salim← A. Salim
71'
F. Kazibwe← F. Kazibwe
72'
B. Senoga← B. Senoga
82'
F. Kazibwe
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SC Villa 1 – 0 MYDA

SC Villa beat MYDA 1-0 in Premier League on February 13, 2021.

Goals: F. Kazibwe (82').

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.