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SC Velbert vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
FT
3 – 0
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
10/11/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert46%
×Draw22%
TVD Velbert32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
1.94
TVD Velbert
1.59

SC Velbert creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 72 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.81
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.81
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
68%
SC Velbert or TVD Velbert
78%
Draw or TVD Velbert
54%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
26%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
86%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
58%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
30%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
80%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
47%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
59%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SC Velbert scores more
46%
level
22%
TVD Velbert scores more
32%

SC Velbert at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SC Velbert 3–0 TVD Velbert

SC Velbert beat TVD Velbert 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Am Böttinger in Velbert.