SC Velbert 4–1 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

SC Velbert

FT

4 – 1

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

8/22/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert47%

×Draw22%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC VelbertExpected goals in this matchTuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.50

SC Velbert

1.88

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.50

SC Velbert creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

1.81

creates per match

1.20

1.81

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SC Velbert

1.81

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.20

allows per match

SC Velbert

1.81

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw

69%

SC Velbert or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

53%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+

26%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals

85%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

56%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

29%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals

78%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals

44%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

60%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SC Velbert scores more

47%

level

22%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more

31%

SC Velbert at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff