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SC Velbert vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
5/8/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 6Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert39%
×Draw22%
Teutonia St.Tönis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
1.83
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
61%
SC Velbert or Teutonia St.Tönis
78%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
61%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
20%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
84%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
54%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
28%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
84%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
55%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
49%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SC Velbert scores more
39%
level
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
39%

SC Velbert at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SC Velbert 0–3 Teutonia St.Tönis

Teutonia St.Tönis beat SC Velbert 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Am Böttinger in Velbert.