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SC Velbert vs SSVg Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
3/16/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert29%
×Draw23%
SSVg Velbert48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
1.42
SSVg Velbert
1.88

SSVg Velbert creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.81
SSVg Velbert
1.95

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.81
SSVg Velbert
1.03

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
52%
SC Velbert or SSVg Velbert
77%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
71%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
13%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
76%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
41%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
17%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
85%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
56%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
38%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

SSVg Velbert attack 1.95 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Velbert scores more
29%
level
23%
SSVg Velbert scores more
48%

SSVg Velbert at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SC Velbert 0–5 SSVg Velbert

SSVg Velbert beat SC Velbert 5-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Am Böttinger in Velbert.