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SC Velbert vs Rather SV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
FT
0 – 2
Rather SV
Rather SV
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SC Velbert23%
×Draw23%
Rather SV54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
1.13
Rather SV
1.83

Rather SV creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.00
Rather SV
2.00

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.67
Rather SV
1.25

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
Rather SV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

Rather SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
46%
SC Velbert or Rather SV
77%
Draw or Rather SV
77%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
9%
Rather SV wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
68%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
31%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
11%
Rather SV 1+ goals
84%
Rather SV 2+ goals
54%
Rather SV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
30%
Rather SV (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Rather SV away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Rather SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rather SV attack 2.00 + SC Velbert defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC Velbert scores more
23%
level
23%
Rather SV scores more
54%

Rather SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rather SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Velbert vs Rather SV

Rather SV beat SC Velbert 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.