SC United Bantams 4–0 North Alabama: Result & Stats

SC United Bantams

FT

4 – 0

North Alabama

6/17/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 10Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SC United Bantams85%

×Draw10%

North Alabama5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC United BantamsExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.45

0.80

SC United Bantams

3.45

North Alabama

0.80

SC United Bantams creates 331% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

0.17

1.44

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

SC United Bantams

2.07

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

SC United Bantams

1.44

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC United Bantams+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC United Bantams ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

SC United Bantams or draw

95%

SC United Bantams or North Alabama

90%

Draw or North Alabama

15%

Winning margin

SC United Bantams wins by 2+

68%

North Alabama wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

SC United Bantams 1+ goals

97%

SC United Bantams 2+ goals

85%

SC United Bantams 3+ goals

65%

North Alabama 1+ goals

55%

North Alabama 2+ goals

19%

North Alabama 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SC United Bantams (draw refunded)

94%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC United Bantams at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC United Bantams attack 2.07 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.45

North Alabama attack 0.17 + SC United Bantams defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

SC United Bantams scores more

85%

level

10%

North Alabama scores more

5%

SC United Bantams at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC United Bantams vs North Alabama

SC United Bantams beat North Alabama 4-0 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex in Columbia, South Carolina.

SC United Bantams vs North Alabama — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: SC United Bantams vs North Alabama