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SC St. Tönis vs Union Frintrop — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
5/5/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 31Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC St. Tönis54%
×Draw22%
Union Frintrop24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
1.98
Union Frintrop
1.27

SC St. Tönis creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
Union Frintrop
0.97

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
Union Frintrop
1.82

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

Union Frintrop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
76%
SC St. Tönis or Union Frintrop
78%
Draw or Union Frintrop
46%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
31%
Union Frintrop wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
86%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
59%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
31%
Union Frintrop 1+ goals
72%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
36%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
69%
Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
54%
level
22%
Union Frintrop scores more
24%

SC St. Tönis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC St. Tönis vs Union Frintrop

SC St. Tönis beat Union Frintrop 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.